US Fed Hold rate Hike

Good Day ALL

I know its very late Indian time but US FED finally decided to hold the Interest rate hike this time around but left with slightly hawkish view projecting to meet once again in Oct '15.

World market has already started reacting to the news as Euro and Nikkei initial went in red but later as the minutes passed by every 30 sec volatility increased and finally after 20 mins of rigorous trading the market in green. Its just first few hours after the outbreak lets see the EOD.

Learn N Earn Team
Jiten Savla

Market update for 16th Sep

Good Morning All,

Global cues are mixed especially with Euro & Nikkei recovered last night and today Nikkei opened down but recovered in the early hours of trade...only to make a new low again.

If average gap up opening for nifty/banknifty
Caution: Sell on rise also with proper signal can fetch good money today...Buy on dips will be highly risky trades but with proper signal and Strict SL @ cost ...you will get good valuations.

Following sectors to watch for today's for few opportunities:
- Metals (Coal)
- Infra
- Banknifty (selected banks as well).
- Pharma
- Auto

Global Cues

Global Cues are very critical today especially with the US fed rate hike clarity will be finally revealed tonight.

Few analysts have already bet on combination of nifty derivatives to take the benefit of the huge volatility possibilities.

Few say: The time is just right for the US Federal Reserve to increase rates; but the stock market rallied late evening (IST) only to suggest that FED may not be 100% sure on rate hike this month. India can emerge as a leader and RBI base rate calculation norms may help monetary policy but only time will tell. 

So its better to get a investment plan ready.

Market Update for 15 Sep

Good Morning All,

Global cues are mixed especially with Nikkei opened 1.5% up but gave all the gains in the early hours of trade.

Caution: Market poised for Export Data around 10:30 am and PM meet with power producers in the afternoon. Great Britain (UK) to disclose critical economical indicators later as well. Buy on dips but with proper signal and Strict SL @ cost if average gap up opening for nifty/banknifty...Sell on rise also with proper signal can fetch good money today.

Following sectors to watch for today's if possible book profits:
- Power & Energy
- Metals (Steel & Aluminium)
- Banknifty (selected banks as well).
- Cement

Is US Fed policy a key catalyst for RBI's rate cut ???

Is US Fed policy a key catalyst for RBI's rate cut ???

Market today 14th Sep

Good Morning All,

Sorry for the delayed Start...but Bank Nifty short last week Friday our level of buy back @16510 still not broken.

Market poised for WPI Inflation data later in the afternoon.

Following sectors to watch for today's trade buy on dips if possible or wait:
- Power & Energy
- Metals (Steel & Aluminium)
- Infra
- Banknifty (selected banks as well)


Following sectors to watch for today's trade sell on rise (high risky traders only):

- IT

- Tyre
- Auto

Critical Pit Stop (Formula 1 Style) for Indian Market's

Good day Folks!!!

It was a Critical 2nd week of Sep 2015 for the market and just reminded me of the Monza Formula 1 race that was just concluded last week. Indian Market are also going through a roller coaster ride and have been waiting for global cues to decide its own pit stop strategy.

Brokerages have begun cutting their Sensex and Nifty targets as worries over a Chinese slowdown and hike in US interest rates weigh on the markets.There are worries that earnings have not caught on and most investors are disappointed. So India is loosing its grip and way back on the Starting line of F1 race....figuratively speaking

SO WHAT NEXT??? 

Will India take the lead post this pit stop....

LEARN N EARN .....with the help of different JETAGE analytical break down.

On 12th Sep 2015, US non-farm payrolls data came in weaker than expected at 173,000, but, analyst are split whether there would be an interest rate hike by the US Fed at its Sept 16-17 meeting.

The consensus estimates was for a 223,000 figure, but despite that other data such as wage increase and a fall in unemployment raised the prospect of an interest rate hike. A drop in the employment and an increase in wages might lead the US Fed to hike interest rates (BUT WHEN ???)

JETAGE: FINANCIAL-MARKET

- The US Dow Jones ended the day sharply lower on Friday and was down almost 3 per cent for the week.
- European markets also dropped following the US nonfarm payrolls data.
- The German DAX and French CAC saw cuts of almost 2.5 per cent.
- Asian markets have also reacted with the Indian markets falling to a 13 month low and facing the worst week (Sep 14 to 20Sep) for the markets in the last 4 years.
-  Analysts are also not sure as to what could be the outcome of the US Fed meeting, but, the way markets have reacted suggest that investors could be looking at a US Fed interest rate hike for the first time in many years.
- Interesting food for thought:- Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have been constantly selling in the Indian markets, while domestic institutions have been buyers

JETAGE: ECONOMY INSIGHTS (China effect)

A slowdown in China would lead to commodities like metals being badly hit. Lower metal prices would have an adverse impact on steel manufacturers in India as they have to compete with imports.

Indian exports to China is not very much. In fact, it is around 10 per cent of India's total exports. India exports items like iron ore, chemicals and allied products to China. If the Chinese economy is hit, exports, which are now at 10 per cent could be hit. But, this is really not very significant to worry about.

Other East Asian economies really need to worry, because they export a greater deal to China. The worry is not really that trade would get hit. The real worry is that the world economy has integrated so such, that the indirect effects are plenty.

For example, if and when China crash lands, it would hit many companies that have significant manufacturing base in China, especially US based companies. When US based companies are affected, contract for Indian IT services from US companies may shrink.
It also leads to a pull-put of money from Foreign Portfolio Investors in India, which can than lead to a fall in the Indian stock markets and also the Indian rupee.


JETAGE: CONCLUSION

It's all a indirect impact of a Chinese economic slowdown on India, rather than a straightforward one. A economic slowdown in China will affect other countries, which in turn would indirectly affect India.

India insulated to a large extent
India is a domestic consumption story. We have not been an export driven economy like China. We largely produce and consume ourselves. Hence, we are relatively insulated, though as explained above, one can never be entirely insulated from the global economy and there are some indirect affects that are going to be there. But, India is in a much better position that most countries, especially from other parts of Asia, which have significant presence in China through exports and manufacturing.

Like F1 Championship is not over ... few more races to go this calendar year. Indian Market's can still fight back post Sep till DEC and emerge as a LEADER!!!

Refer to previous post "Better SAFE than SORRY" for investment ideas....

Regards,
Learn N Earn Team.

11 Sep Report

11th Sep AI report Market insight

Better Safe than Sorry...

Better Safe than Sorry... is not a Mantra, its a tool for smart investment opportunities.

Let's understand why in an economy like India it will work.

Investors are always confused to invest in Stocks/Mutual fund, or bank fixed deposit/bond etc etc.
Especially when interest rates fall, shares tend to move in opposite direction. In India shares prices have fallen with the Sensex at a near 13 month low and interest rates have followed. A year back it was easy to get an interest rate of 9.25 per cent on a deposit at State Bank of India. Today, the maximum interest rate that one can get is 8 per cent. Clearly, in the last one year interest rates and share prices have fallen. In fact, even gold has fallen in the last one year.

Choosing between shares and fixed deposits?

The question now is: If both are falling where to put money. In 2015, the Sensex has thus far given negative returns. On Jan 1, 2015, the Sensex closed at 27,507 points. We are nearly 2000 points below those levels at Thursday's close of 25,622 points. Many analysts see the Sensex EPS at around 1450 for the financial year 2015-16. This translates into a price to earnings ratio of around 17.6 times one year forward earnings. This makes Sensex valuations at long term averages, which means it is fairly valued at current levels. So, after a nearly 14 per cent fall on the Sensex from the highs of 30,000 points in March, the markets are still not a screaming buy. Hence, if you think that after the fall you should be buying shares at these levels, you could certainly nibble selectively as the valuations are fair. Selective purchases can be done and if there is a further reaction in stocks of around 5-10 per cent, it would be an excellent opportunity to buy into blue chip stocks like ICICI Bank and Tata Motors. If you have fixed deposits which have been placed almost a year back at interest rates of 9.25 per cent and more for the longer term, it would be unwise to break them and put money in shares, since these have been locked at high interest rates. If you want to buy shares you can start nibbling selectively and in case the market falls lower from here, you can keep buying stocks at lower levels and averaging your costs. Please do not buy shares in large quantities until the US Fed meeting ends on Sept 17. This would give you a clear indication on where interest rates are headed in the US. If there is a hike in interest rates in the US on Sept 17, you could see massive sell-off in Indian markets. This would give you an ideal opportunity to buy into shares. For the time being just hold onto cash for at least a week.

Important to seek advise before you $$$ buy

Good Morning Everyone....

Lot of people have been asking; is this the good time to invest in Mutual Fund, Which fund and what price. Lets us understand how Mutual fund works and how its priced @ NAV.

Mutual Fund Net Asset Values (NAV) are the most important indicator for a mutual fund investor. In fact, unless you are investing through the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) it makes sense to look at the net asset value of a mutual fund scheme very closely. How is mutual fund NAV calculated? Mutual fund net asset value takes into consideration the total expenses of the fund, including salary and other administrative fees and its investments, whether they are debt or equity. These are than divided by the number of units.

This is a very simplistic way of explaining how a NAV of a fund is calculated. Let us now understand this with the help of an example. Let us say for simplicity that the total investments of a fund including debt and equity is Rs 1 lakh. If the cost to manage the fund and the other expenses are Rs 2,000/- p.a and the outstanding units are 5000 than the calculation is as follows: Rs 1 lakh /5000 - Rs 2,000/5000 = 19.6 So, we can say that the net asset value if Rs 19.6. This is just a example.

Importance of lower and higher NAV for the investor:-
The net asset value is perhaps the single most important factor to look for, especially if you are investing in equity linked mutual fund schemes. It is also extremely important if you are investing a lump sum and not through an SIP. Now, let's see why the NAV is very important. If you are planning to invest a lump sum you must track the NAV. Let's assume you want to invest Rs 100,000 in a mutual fund scheme. If the NAV a month back was Rs 10, you would get almost 10,000 units. Now, let's say you have waited patiently and the NAV has fallen to Rs 9.50. You would now get 10,526 units, which is certainly more. However, in most of the cases it is almost impossible to know at what NAV to buy, as a funds performance would largely depend on the markets.

But, generally speaking you should seek expert advise before investing a lump sum. For example, when the Sensex was at 30,000 points many investors thought that it would cross 32,000 points and they invested in mutual funds. In fact, that did not happen. Today, the last three month return of mutual fund schemes has been negative and many funds have just about managed to generate positive returns in the last one year.

It is therefore important to seek advise before you buy.

Happy Investing!!!!

Complexity Of Trading

10th Sep AI report Market insight

10th Sep Report

10th Sep AI report Market insight

Confidence v/s Will Power

The Only reason I am uploading this piece so soon in our season; is because this is the key to everything you do ...not only in market but in real life as well.

Since last few months working with few FII and fund managers; i have got a chance to learn something more in-depth and come to "in terms" with this ideology

There are three types of confidence:

•  False/Imaginary Confidence

• Temporary/On-Off Confidence

• True Confidence

False confidence —  This type of person will talk big and poses like a big shot. he often takes big risks in an effort to either impress others or to message their own ego and discomfort, and the outcome is terrible sometimes as it leads to busting there trading account.

Temporary confidence — Which is conditional on recent performance. This type of person's self-esteem is tied to their account equity or P&L.  When they are in a good run, they feel confident and like to take larger risks (often the prelude to giving it all back). And when performance is lousy they start grasping at anything, maybe exiting winners prematurely or taking on excessive risk to get their money back.

 True confidence — This is confidence that does not depend on recent results. It is based on a deep sense of inner trust.This is the person who has a history of doing the right thing, regardless of the outcome. Doing the right thing in the sense that they act in their own best interest and trust and understand that doing so over time has a positive impact on results.  The trust runs deep enough to provide resilience in the face of disappointment.  This is true self-confidence, the kind you want in trading and in life.

In my many years of experience and learning from it, I’ve discovered confidence is a major part of the foundation for discipline.

Why is self-trust and resilience in the face of disappointment the  foundation for discipline? 

Disappointment in trading, in it’s myriad of  manifestations – missing out, leaving big money on the table,  taking a loss, etc – is inevitable for even the best traders. It’s an elemental fact that traders who  understand this, internalize it, and make it a part of their trading strategy are the most successful.

 Almost everyone says that discipline is a requirement to succeed in trading. But most people never talk about  what really underlies  discipline. And now you know.

 Are you surprised it’s not will-power? Will-power is not sustainable, it also results in fatigue by significantly reducing glucose (blood sugar levels).

In fact, empirical research shows that extended use of will-power results in cognitive fatigue and lower glucose levels. And cognitive or mental fatigue is dangerous for a trader, it makes us susceptible to making the kind of mistakes we regret later.

 Now that you know that will-power is not enough, do you want to develop the necessary ingredients for discipline?

Stay tuned for next post with market update and insight.

WELCOME BACK FOLKS!!!

Hello Everyone!!!!!

Welcome Back Friends....we have lot of new exiting things this season.

WHAT -  The purpose of restarting this blog is to identify analysis and evaluate the role of knowledge in financial market based on heuriskein method with excel based arithmetical progression within a given time frame, probability of various permutations & combinations;  also known as heuristics algorithms or as modern science would name it AI "Artificial Intelligence"

WHEN / WHY - As you know today among-st the top groups of TV channels aired today most of then would be related to financial market. An industry that has more then 7+ channels dedicated 24 * 7 to share and express views of experts on global market outlook as well as local... just imagine the media info floating everywhere & anywhere ... day in and day out.

WHERE - More than 5000 Registered Brokers, 5 Lac Sub-Broker, 50 Lac Sub Dealers ... Contributing more than 27% of National Employment…Indian Financial Market is the 2nd largest with regards to monthly volume in Trillions of dollars… HR department in any (global & local = glocal) ... GLO-CAL Financial Market have always stressed on the importance of getting investors with not only the right book knowledge but also people who fit into the advisory criteria for appreciation of your portfolio.

HOW - Now just comprehend how advisable it is to gain adequate knowledge before start trading and investing especially insights to analyze key info and evaluate day trading behavior, and provide recommendations in order to improve it. This Blog will also reveal the importance of the direct relation between goals and investments. In order to gain a strategic profit making system in our case AI and exercise the strategic goals of investing, the day trading objectives should be directly aligned and followed with simple and realistic follow ups on timely basis as well....... need for AI is at its prime and will be part of necessity in near future to come.  

The mission and vision statements into one statement called “Our Future” working hand in hand and aligned with profit making objectives is the bottom line for this BLOG!!!